Prediction Accuracy
How often the published odds have been right: hit rates by predicted category, calibration by odds band, and the per-run vintages, scored against actual FCC dispositions.
What counts as a hit: a granted prediction was right when the application was actually granted, and a dismissed one when it was actually dismissed or withdrawn. A prediction becomes scorable only after its expected process date has passed and the FCC's files show a terminal disposition.
The calibration table groups each scored choice by the decile band its predicted grant odds fell into and compares the share actually granted against the band. Unknown-callsign rows — the grant could not be attributed to the requested callsign — count in the band's Scored and Unknown Callsign columns but never in Granted or in the observed rate.
Applications still awaiting a disposition sit in their own pending bucket and pad neither side of any rate. The date panel is the signed gap in days between the actual and predicted process dates — negative means the actual disposition came earlier — and undated rows are excluded rather than substituted.
The over-time table reads as vintages: each row is one prediction run scored on its own, so an improvement to the rules shows as a step between adjacent vintages.
Rates over fewer than 20 decided predictions show as too few to judge: below that floor a single prediction moves the rate by more than 5 percentage points, so a percentage would imply precision the cohort does not have. Counts always render.
Score run #130 — finished 2026-09-24T00:50:06.587792Z (applied) — process date 2026-09-23 — 113 scored runs
| Category | Scored | Correct | Incorrect | Unknown Callsign | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granted Certain | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| Granted Unknown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| Dismissed Likely | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| Dismissed Certain | 105 | 87 | 18 | 0 | 83% |
Each row is one prediction-run vintage — the report as it stood after that run — so an improvement to the rules shows as a step between adjacent vintages rather than smeared into the lifetime average above.
| Run | Granted Certain | Granted Unknown | Dismissed Likely | Dismissed Certain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run #67 — 2026-09-13 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #66 — 2026-09-13 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #65 — 2026-09-13 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #64 — 2026-09-13 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #63 — 2026-09-13 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #62 — 2026-09-13 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #61 — 2026-09-13 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #60 — 2026-09-13 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #59 — 2026-09-13 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #58 — 2026-09-12 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #57 — 2026-09-12 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #56 — 2026-09-12 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Run #55 — 2026-09-12 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 5too few to judge |
| Probability Band | Scored | Granted | Unknown Callsign | Observed Grant Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10%–20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 20%–30% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 30%–40% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 40%–50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 50%–60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 60%–70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 70%–80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 80%–90% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 90%–100% | 9 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
These 4859 applications have not been scored yet — they sit in their own bucket and pad neither side of any rate above. 4859 are overdue (their predicted process date has passed); 0 are not yet due.
113 Granted Certain0 Granted Unknown226 Dismissed Likely4520 Dismissed Certain
114 scored rows carry a date error — the signed gap in days between the actual and predicted process dates, negative meaning the FCC acted earlier than predicted. Mean signed error: -7.631578947368421 days; mean absolute error: 7.631578947368421 days. 0 scored rows have no actual disposition date and are excluded rather than substituted.