Prediction Accuracy
How often the published odds have been right: hit rates by predicted category, calibration by odds band, and the per-run vintages, scored against actual FCC dispositions.
What counts as a hit: a granted prediction was right when the application was actually granted, and a dismissed one when it was actually dismissed or withdrawn. A prediction becomes scorable only after its expected process date has passed and the FCC's files show a terminal disposition.
The calibration table groups each scored choice by the decile band its predicted grant odds fell into and compares the share actually granted against the band. Unknown-callsign rows — the grant could not be attributed to the requested callsign — count in the band's Scored and Unknown Callsign columns but never in Granted or in the observed rate.
Applications still awaiting a disposition sit in their own pending bucket and pad neither side of any rate. The date panel is the signed gap in days between the actual and predicted process dates — negative means the actual disposition came earlier — and undated rows are excluded rather than substituted.
The over-time table reads as vintages: each row is one prediction run scored on its own, so an improvement to the rules shows as a step between adjacent vintages.
Rates over fewer than 20 decided predictions show as too few to judge: below that floor a single prediction moves the rate by more than 5 percentage points, so a percentage would imply precision the cohort does not have. Counts always render.
Score run #130 — finished 2026-09-24T00:50:06.587792Z (applied) — process date 2026-09-23 — 113 scored runs
Accuracy by Category (All Runs) (4)
| Category | Scored | Correct | Incorrect | Unknown Callsign | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granted Certain | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| Granted Unknown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| Dismissed Likely | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| Dismissed Certain | 105 | 87 | 18 | 0 | 83% |
Each row is one prediction-run vintage — the report as it stood after that run — so an improvement to the rules shows as a step between adjacent vintages rather than smeared into the lifetime average above.
Accuracy Over Time (100)
| Run | Granted Certain | Granted Unknown | Dismissed Likely | Dismissed Certain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run #167 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #166 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #165 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #164 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #163 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #162 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #161 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #160 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #159 — 2026-09-23 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #158 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #157 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #156 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #155 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #154 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #153 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #152 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #151 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #150 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #149 — 2026-09-22 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #148 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #147 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #146 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #145 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #144 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #143 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #142 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #141 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #140 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #139 — 2026-09-21 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #138 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #137 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #136 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #135 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #134 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #133 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #132 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #131 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #130 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #129 — 2026-09-20 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #128 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #127 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #126 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #125 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #124 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #123 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #122 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #121 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #120 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #119 — 2026-09-19 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #118 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #117 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #116 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #115 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #114 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #113 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #112 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #111 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #110 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #109 — 2026-09-18 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #108 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #107 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #106 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #105 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #104 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #103 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #102 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #101 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #100 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #99 — 2026-09-17 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #98 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #97 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #96 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #95 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #94 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #93 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #92 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #91 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #90 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #89 — 2026-09-16 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #88 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #87 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #86 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #85 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #84 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #83 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #82 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #81 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #80 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #79 — 2026-09-15 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #78 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #77 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #76 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #75 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #74 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #73 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #72 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #71 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #70 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #69 — 2026-09-14 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
| Run #68 — 2026-09-13 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 2too few to judge |
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Calibration (10)
| Probability Band | Scored | Granted | Unknown Callsign | Observed Grant Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10%–20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 20%–30% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 30%–40% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 40%–50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 50%–60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 60%–70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 70%–80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 80%–90% | 0 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
| 90%–100% | 9 | 0 | 0 | too few to judge |
Still Pending
These 4859 applications have not been scored yet — they sit in their own bucket and pad neither side of any rate above. 4859 are overdue (their predicted process date has passed); 0 are not yet due.
113 Granted Certain0 Granted Unknown226 Dismissed Likely4520 Dismissed Certain
Date Accuracy
114 scored rows carry a date error — the signed gap in days between the actual and predicted process dates, negative meaning the FCC acted earlier than predicted. Mean signed error: -7.631578947368421 days; mean absolute error: 7.631578947368421 days. 0 scored rows have no actual disposition date and are excluded rather than substituted.
FCC Data Freshness
Derived2026-09-24T00:20:07.046885Z
license-weeklyl_amat.zip — applied 2026-09-20T16:18:23.306716Z
license-dailyl_am_tue.zip — applied 2026-09-23T18:01:16.692874Z
application-weeklya_amat.zip — applied 2026-09-20T16:18:23.410853Z
applied with 2 quarantined USI(s) (HD:1, VC:1) — e.g. 13141547, 13743541 — those records retain their previous values and are known stale
application-dailya_am_tue.zip — applied 2026-09-23T18:01:16.698065Z