Prediction Accuracy
How often the published odds have been right: hit rates by predicted category, calibration by odds band, and the per-run vintages, scored against actual FCC dispositions.
What counts as a hit: a granted prediction was right when the application was actually granted, and a dismissed one when it was actually dismissed or withdrawn. A prediction becomes scorable only after its expected process date has passed and the FCC's files show a terminal disposition.
The calibration table groups each scored choice by the decile band its predicted grant odds fell into and compares the share actually granted against the band. Unknown-callsign rows — the grant could not be attributed to the requested callsign — count in the band's Scored and Unknown Callsign columns but never in Granted or in the observed rate.
Applications still awaiting a disposition sit in their own pending bucket and pad neither side of any rate. The date panel is the signed gap in days between the actual and predicted process dates — negative means the actual disposition came earlier — and undated rows are excluded rather than substituted.
The over-time table reads as vintages: each row is one prediction run scored on its own, so an improvement to the rules shows as a step between adjacent vintages.
Rates over fewer than 20 decided predictions show as too few to judge: below that floor a single prediction moves the rate by more than 5 percentage points, so a percentage would imply precision the cohort does not have. Counts always render.
Score run #580 — finished 2026-11-08T00:50:06.291713Z (applied) — process date 2026-11-07 — 415 scored runs
| Category | Scored | Correct | Incorrect | Unknown Callsign | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granted Certain | 38412 | 34648 | 3764 | 0 | 90% |
| Granted Unknown | 4100 | 3151 | 949 | 0 | 77% |
| Dismissed Likely | 112243 | 21040 | 91203 | 0 | 19% |
| Dismissed Certain | 93061 | 31173 | 61888 | 0 | 33% |
Each row is one prediction-run vintage — the report as it stood after that run — so an improvement to the rules shows as a step between adjacent vintages rather than smeared into the lifetime average above.
| Run | Granted Certain | Granted Unknown | Dismissed Likely | Dismissed Certain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run #469 — 2026-11-07 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #468 — 2026-11-07 | 1too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #467 — 2026-11-07 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #466 — 2026-11-07 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #465 — 2026-11-06 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #464 — 2026-11-06 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #463 — 2026-11-06 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #462 — 2026-11-06 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #461 — 2026-11-06 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #460 — 2026-11-05 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #459 — 2026-11-05 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #458 — 2026-11-05 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #457 — 2026-11-05 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #456 — 2026-11-04 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #455 — 2026-11-04 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #454 — 2026-11-04 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #453 — 2026-11-04 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #452 — 2026-11-03 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #451 — 2026-11-03 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #450 — 2026-11-03 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #449 — 2026-11-03 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #448 — 2026-11-02 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #447 — 2026-11-02 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #446 — 2026-11-02 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #445 — 2026-11-02 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #444 — 2026-11-01 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #443 — 2026-11-01 | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge | 0too few to judge |
| Run #442 — 2026-11-01 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #441 — 2026-11-01 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #440 — 2026-10-31 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #439 — 2026-10-31 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #438 — 2026-10-31 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #437 — 2026-10-31 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #436 — 2026-10-31 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #435 — 2026-10-30 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #434 — 2026-10-30 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #433 — 2026-10-30 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #432 — 2026-10-30 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #431 — 2026-10-29 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #430 — 2026-10-29 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #429 — 2026-10-29 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #428 — 2026-10-29 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #427 — 2026-10-28 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #426 — 2026-10-28 | 4398% | 5too few to judge | 10512% | 7727% |
| Run #425 — 2026-10-28 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #424 — 2026-10-28 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #423 — 2026-10-27 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #422 — 2026-10-27 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #421 — 2026-10-27 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #420 — 2026-10-27 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #419 — 2026-10-26 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #418 — 2026-10-26 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #417 — 2026-10-25 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #416 — 2026-10-25 | 10994% | 5too few to judge | 2529% | 18126% |
| Run #415 — 2026-10-25 | 12293% | 3too few to judge | 2729% | 25724% |
| Run #414 — 2026-10-25 | 12293% | 3too few to judge | 2729% | 25724% |
| Run #413 — 2026-10-25 | 13693% | 4too few to judge | 2869% | 22827% |
| Run #412 — 2026-10-25 | 13693% | 4too few to judge | 2869% | 22827% |
| Run #411 — 2026-10-24 | 13693% | 4too few to judge | 2869% | 22827% |
| Run #410 — 2026-10-24 | 13693% | 4too few to judge | 2869% | 22827% |
| Run #409 — 2026-10-24 | 16694% | 6too few to judge | 3248% | 24528% |
| Run #408 — 2026-10-24 | 16694% | 6too few to judge | 3249% | 24528% |
| Run #407 — 2026-10-23 | 16694% | 6too few to judge | 3249% | 24528% |
| Run #406 — 2026-10-23 | 16694% | 6too few to judge | 3249% | 24528% |
| Run #405 — 2026-10-23 | 16793% | 6too few to judge | 3249% | 24528% |
| Run #404 — 2026-10-23 | 16793% | 6too few to judge | 3249% | 24528% |
| Run #403 — 2026-10-22 | 16793% | 6too few to judge | 3249% | 24528% |
| Run #402 — 2026-10-22 | 16793% | 6too few to judge | 3249% | 24528% |
| Run #401 — 2026-10-22 | 16892% | 6too few to judge | 3259% | 24929% |
| Run #400 — 2026-10-22 | 16892% | 6too few to judge | 3259% | 24929% |
| Run #399 — 2026-10-21 | 16892% | 6too few to judge | 3259% | 24929% |
| Run #398 — 2026-10-21 | 16692% | 6too few to judge | 3279% | 24929% |
| Run #397 — 2026-10-21 | 16692% | 6too few to judge | 3279% | 24929% |
| Run #396 — 2026-10-21 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #395 — 2026-10-21 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #394 — 2026-10-20 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #393 — 2026-10-20 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #392 — 2026-10-20 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #391 — 2026-10-20 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #390 — 2026-10-19 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #389 — 2026-10-19 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #388 — 2026-10-18 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #387 — 2026-10-18 | 21192% | 10too few to judge | 3909% | 34436% |
| Run #386 — 2026-10-18 | 22492% | 9too few to judge | 4398% | 40435% |
| Run #385 — 2026-10-18 | 22492% | 9too few to judge | 4398% | 40435% |
| Run #384 — 2026-10-18 | 23492% | 15too few to judge | 46710% | 36037% |
| Run #383 — 2026-10-18 | 23492% | 15too few to judge | 46710% | 36037% |
| Run #382 — 2026-10-17 | 23492% | 15too few to judge | 46710% | 36037% |
| Run #381 — 2026-10-17 | 23492% | 15too few to judge | 46710% | 36037% |
| Run #380 — 2026-10-17 | 28091% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 39734% |
| Run #379 — 2026-10-17 | 28091% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 39734% |
| Run #378 — 2026-10-16 | 28091% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 39734% |
| Run #377 — 2026-10-16 | 28091% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 39734% |
| Run #376 — 2026-10-16 | 27991% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 40034% |
| Run #375 — 2026-10-16 | 27991% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 40034% |
| Run #374 — 2026-10-15 | 27991% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 40034% |
| Run #373 — 2026-10-15 | 27991% | 16too few to judge | 56013% | 40034% |
| Run #372 — 2026-10-15 | 27793% | 13too few to judge | 56511% | 40837% |
| Run #371 — 2026-10-15 | 27793% | 13too few to judge | 56511% | 40837% |
| Run #370 — 2026-10-14 | 27793% | 13too few to judge | 56512% | 40837% |
| Probability Band | Scored | Granted | Unknown Callsign | Observed Grant Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | 198370 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10%–20% | 2632 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 20%–30% | 1393 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 30%–40% | 1990 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 40%–50% | 1894 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 50%–60% | 1909 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 60%–70% | 438 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 70%–80% | 173 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 80%–90% | 233 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 90%–100% | 38784 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
These 66608 pending predictions have not been scored yet — they sit in their own bucket and pad neither side of any rate above. The count is of prediction rows, not applications: each prediction run records one row per requested call sign it forecasts, so an application still awaiting the FCC appears once per choice in every run that predicted it. 66608 are overdue (their predicted process date has passed); 0 are not yet due.
6489 Granted Certain460 Granted Unknown14191 Dismissed Likely45468 Dismissed Certain
9115 predictions for applications more than a year past their expected process date that had no final FCC action as of the latest scoring run. They are counted here instead of in the pending total above; if the FCC does act on one, it is scored normally and leaves this count.
680 Granted Certain0 Granted Unknown680 Dismissed Likely7755 Dismissed Certain
247816 scored rows carry a date error — the signed gap in days between the actual and predicted process dates, negative meaning the FCC acted earlier than predicted. Mean signed error: -7.271858959873454 days; mean absolute error: 7.312066210414178 days. 0 scored rows have no actual disposition date and are excluded rather than substituted.